An icon in the shape of a lightning bolt. Impact Link What is the mathematical likelihood that a sovereign will default? Citi's Investment and Research team thinks they have a pretty good answer. A ...

WASHINGTON — In response to a spate of municipal bankruptcies and ongoing fiscal challenges at the local level, the California treasurer’s office has embarked on a project aimed at predicting cities’ ...

CreditVantage is pleased to announce the launch of the CRS Corporate PD Model, its new probability of default (PD) tool. Initially the model will be applicable for North America with coverage of ...

Please Note: Blog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors. The blue line is the banking subsidiary's one year default probability using ...

Structural models of default are widely used to analyze corporate bond spreads, but have generally been unable to explain why risk premiums are as high as they are. This credit spread puzzle can be ...

The assessment of default risk is also critical in the valuation of corporate bonds and credit derivatives such as basket-default swaps. There is an important distinction between default risk under ...