Investing

Visualizing GDP: The Consumer Is Key

Note from dshort: The charts in this commentary have been updated to include the Q4 GDP Advance Estimate. The chart below is my way to visualize real GDP change since 2007. I've used a stacked column ...
Investing

Real GDP Per Capita and the Year-over-Year Change

Note from dshort: This morning we learned that the Second Estimate for Q4 real GDP came in at 3.0%, up from the Advance Estimate of 2.8%. The latest data does not significantly change the long term ...
The Financial Times

Does GDP growth minus AI capex equal zero?

We have written a few times recently about the common if somewhat shapeless worry that if the AI boom were to turn into a bust, it would take the US economy into recession. A recent X post from the ...
Investing

Using The Japan PMI As An Alternative Measure Of Economic Growth

Doubts continue to be raised regarding the quality of GDP data in Japan, highlighting the role that business surveys such as the PMI can play in monitoring the economy and policymaking. A new ...