Recessions are not predictable with precision. But they are priceable, and at 40% to 50% probability, the risk deserves portfolio-level attention. The investors best positioned for whatever happens ...

US recession warning 2026: US recession fears are escalating as rising oil prices and global tensions, particularly the Middle East conflict, weigh on the economic outlook. Analysts now place ...

Biden added 240K jobs/month at peak. Trump II managed just 181K for the entire year of 2025. Consumer sentiment just hit a 74 ...

Polymarket bettors have wagered $1.3 million on a US recession by end of 2026, with odds at 30%. JPMorgan puts the ...

Goldman Sachs has lifted its 12-month U.S. recession probability to 25%, but the headline number only captures part of the shift underway. The bigger issue is what is driving it. A cooling labor ...

Goldman Sachs just bumped its U.S. recession probability to 30% from 25%, underscoring how quickly things are moving. Just weeks ago, the odds were closer to 20%, but now we’re seeing the risk being ...

Julian Emanuel, senior managing director at Evercore ISI, believes the probability of a recession remains low and that the Federal Reserve is positioned to support markets. In an interview with CNBC, ...

It's becoming harder to ignore the risk of a recession as the Iran war causes historic disruptions in energy markets. The US economy skated through 2025 on a solid footing, but the bull case for ...

"In a recession, investors usually look for stability, liquidity and a reasonable return while they wait out uncertainty.

Germany’s recession risk has surged to 33.5% for the second quarter as the Iran war drives up energy costs, disrupts supply chains, and dampens business sentiment. Economic indicators have shifted to ...

Recession probability indicators are flashing caution. The yield curve has spent extended periods inverted, the Conference ...