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You’ve probably heard the claim that the odds of life existing are something like 1 in 10¹²⁰. It sounds scientific, but it’s actually a misuse of statistics. That number assumes the universe is a random lottery where physical constants are independently “rolled.” But we’ve only ever observed one universe. You can’t assign meaningful probabilities to a single data point, especially when you don’t know the distribution. It also uses hindsight bias — calculating the odds of this exact universe and
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